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By: Nicholas Blanford

The February 14 assassination of former Lebanese prime minister Rafiq al-Hariri has precipitated a rapid and dramatic transformation of Lebanon’s political landscape. In the six weeks following the assassination, the Lebanese government collapsed and Syria began the process of withdrawing its soldiers and intelligence officers from Lebanon, almost 30 years after they first arrived during Lebanon’s 1975-1990 civil war. The government’s collapse and the Syrian plans for departure were each compelled by an unprecedented wave of anti-Syrian street protests, as well as unrelenting international pressure.

The future of Lebanon’s political transformation remains uncertain, however. Although the vast majority of Lebanese will not be unhappy to see the complete evacuation of Syrian troops, and the pervasive Syrian military intelligence service in particular, there are no guarantees of a stable transition from Pax Syriana to an independent political order. Indeed, despite the ongoing withdrawal of Syrian forces, it is by no means clear that Syria intends to relinquish its grip on Lebanese politics. Syria’s allies remain mostly in place. Lebanese President Emile Lahoud, considered by most Lebanese to be a puppet of Damascus, shows no sign of voluntarily stepping down. Syrian intervention to extend Lahoud’s tenure, through an unpopular September 2004 amendment to the Lebanese constitution, was what pushed Hariri to resign the premiership and commence serious contacts with the Lebanese opposition.

The euphoria that attended the telegenic anti-Syrian protests is likewise diminishing, as the opposition forces reassess their attitude toward Lahoud’s government. Opposition politicians also are watching the maneuvers of Hizballah, the vocal representative of Lebanon’s Shiite community that has largely stayed out of the rallies to unseat Lahoud and show Syria the back door out of Lebanon.

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